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CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2024 Apr 21 00:05:35 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2024 Apr 21 00:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2024 Apr 28 00:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 9,685 Primaries, 26,140 Secondaries (70,277 Conjunctions)
18 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 05h 04m 51.221s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs
NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch
TCA
(UTC)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 55082 FLOCK 4Y-34 [+] 2.091 2024-04-22 19:02:17.932 0.023 14.403
50 km All 57945 STARLINK-30705 [+] 1.938 9.604E-02 0.012
GP Data 57469 STARLINK-30171 [+] 1.010 2024-04-21 12:08:31.802 0.042 7.526
50 km All 48610 FALCON 9 DEB [-] 1.485 6.124E-02 0.011
GP Data 56487 STARLINK-6196 [+] 6.330 2024-04-27 05:04:57.135 0.035 14.610
50 km All 43775 OBJECT T [-] 7.112 4.327E-02 0.020
GP Data 56925 STARLINK-5733 [+] 2.263 2024-04-22 21:49:27.831 0.063 7.255
50 km All 33643 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.700 2.840E-02 0.017
GP Data 47478 FLOCK 4S-9 [+] 2.826 2024-04-23 13:10:29.508 0.068 7.815
50 km All 59259 STARLINK-31506 [+] 3.216 2.180E-02 0.019
GP Data 57356 STARLINK-6355 [+] 4.461 2024-04-25 05:45:40.297 0.081 7.288
50 km All 1961 TITAN 3C TRANSTAGE DEB [-] 4.679 1.782E-02 0.022
GP Data 49961 SHIJIAN-6 05A (SJ-6 05A) [+] 0.285 2024-04-21 00:54:53.914 2.226 0.002
50 km All 58652 SHIYAN 24C 03 [+] 0.352 1.217E-02 0.005
GP Data 49961 SHIJIAN-6 05A (SJ-6 05A) [+] 0.352 2024-04-21 02:31:12.111 2.070 0.002
50 km All 58652 SHIYAN 24C 03 [+] 0.419 1.217E-02 0.005
GP Data 49961 SHIJIAN-6 05A (SJ-6 05A) [+] 0.419 2024-04-21 04:07:30.131 1.916 0.002
50 km All 58652 SHIYAN 24C 03 [+] 0.486 1.217E-02 0.005
GP Data 49961 SHIJIAN-6 05A (SJ-6 05A) [+] 0.486 2024-04-21 05:43:48.130 1.762 0.002
50 km All 58652 SHIYAN 24C 03 [+] 0.553 1.217E-02 0.005

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.