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 CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
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Data current as of 2025 Dec 09 10:05:34 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2025 Dec 09 10:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2025 Dec 16 10:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 13,577 Primaries, 29,160 Secondaries (104,790 Conjunctions)
19 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 08h 46m 13.643s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 54750 YAOGAN-36 04C [+] 4.502 2025-12-13 16:43:17.479 0.024 8.036
50 km All 62506 STARLINK-32681 [+] 4.747 1.563E-01 0.007
GP Data 53729 STARLINK-4651 [+] 2.099 2025-12-11 05:58:38.216 0.027 11.092
50 km All 11114 SL-8 DEB [-] 2.244 1.127E-01 0.009
GP Data 46674 STARLINK-1718 [+] 2.596 2025-12-11 17:58:16.012 0.031 7.219
50 km All 37734 CZ-2C DEB [-] 2.840 1.033E-01 0.009
GP Data 51720 STARLINK-3526 [+] 3.733 2025-12-12 20:02:19.903 0.034 7.619
50 km All 24893 SL-3 DEB [-] 3.798 8.668E-02 0.010
GP Data 56376 STARLINK-6188 [+] 4.108 2025-12-13 02:30:33.543 0.032 10.621
50 km All 31326 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 17.492 8.539E-02 0.010
GP Data 46782 STARLINK-1835 [P] 5.926 2025-12-15 01:31:47.546 0.068 6.869
50 km All 66439 STARLINK-35327 [+] 5.897 7.586E-02 0.018
GP Data 63840 STARLINK-33990 [+] 0.897 2025-12-09 23:12:54.690 0.035 12.663
50 km All 41528 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 1.174 6.309E-02 0.013
GP Data 56154 PIESAT B [+] 0.870 2025-12-09 10:51:07.813 0.403 0.001
50 km All 56155 PIESAT C [+] 0.870 6.247E-02 0.002
GP Data 56154 PIESAT B [+] 0.936 2025-12-09 12:26:15.663 0.419 0.001
50 km All 56155 PIESAT C [+] 0.936 6.247E-02 0.002
GP Data 56154 PIESAT B [+] 1.002 2025-12-09 14:01:23.519 0.432 0.001
50 km All 56155 PIESAT C [+] 1.002 6.247E-02 0.002

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.