URGENT: We will run out of 5-digit catalog numbers at 69999 not 99999, which is estimated to occur around 2026‑07‑20 (we're currently at 68765). At that point, newly cataloged objects will have 6-digit catalog numbers of 100000+ and GP data will not be available for them using the TLE format. CelesTrak developed new formats that removed this limitation (and finally fixed the Y2K problem) in May 2020 and immediately began providing GP data in those formats for software developers. The same limitations apply to the legacy fixed-field SATCAT. Follow @TSKelso on Bluesky for the latest updates, tutorials, and changes as we approach this transition. Spread the word! ‑ TS

SOCRATES Plus

Search Results

 CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items

Data current as of 2026 Apr 19 12:20:27 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2026 Apr 19 13:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2026 Apr 26 13:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 15,143 Primaries, 30,776 Secondaries (135,099 Conjunctions)
8 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 10h 34m 39.758s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 59521 STARLINK-31404 [+] 3.780 2026-04-23 00:31:44.921 0.014 13.218
50 km All 62623 OTTER [+] 3.902 3.259E-01 0.005
GP Data 62861 STARLINK-32859 [+] 1.254 2026-04-20 05:30:52.188 0.021 9.583
50 km All 63239 TEVEL2-8 [+] 1.056 1.871E-01 0.006
GP Data 57023 OBJECT V [+] 4.884 2026-04-24 04:04:10.154 0.026 0.147
50 km All 67700 STARLINK-36712 [+] 4.880 1.508E-01 0.007
GP Data 61633 STARLINK-32396 [+] 6.404 2026-04-25 15:01:00.362 0.021 14.326
50 km All 41370 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 8.338 1.277E-01 0.010
GP Data 43831 SAUDISAT 5A [+] 1.973 2026-04-21 06:06:45.957 0.029 11.207
50 km All 67310 STARLINK-36491 [+] 2.238 9.907E-02 0.010
GP Data 63239 TEVEL2-8 [+] 4.308 2026-04-23 11:34:10.859 0.029 13.520
50 km All 64909 STARLINK-34687 [+] 4.617 8.126E-02 0.012
GP Data 47158 STARLINK-1873 [P] 0.465 2026-04-19 15:30:14.359 0.069 4.099
50 km All 68246 STARLINK-37043 [+] 0.396 7.913E-02 0.017
GP Data 57175 CUBEBEL 2 (EU11S) [+] 5.812 2026-04-25 01:47:50.422 0.008 1.404
50 km All 57402 TIANMU-1 10 [+] 5.807 6.480E-02 0.002
GP Data 62637 FLOCK 4G-24 [P] 3.440 2026-04-21 23:21:45.654 0.033 14.194
50 km All 66537 STARLINK-35582 [+] 2.741 5.701E-02 0.016
GP Data 43023 JILIN-1 05 [+] 7.001 2026-04-26 06:16:22.969 0.043 8.880
50 km All 67661 STARLINK-36674 [+] 7.192 5.639E-02 0.012

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.