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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2024 Mar 28 08:15:04 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2024 Mar 28 08:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2024 Apr 04 08:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 9,527 Primaries, 25,989 Secondaries (70,646 Conjunctions)
20 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 04h 54m 43.825s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs
NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch
TCA
(UTC)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 59212 STARLINK-31492 [+] 6.453 2024-04-03 14:52:22.375 0.012 14.704
50 km All 29803 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.421 3.825E-01 0.004
GP Data 57970 STARLINK-30494 [+] 5.232 2024-04-02 02:21:17.189 0.025 8.923
50 km All 24795 IRIDIUM 5 [-] 5.157 2.272E-01 0.008
GP Data 57731 YAOGAN-39 01C [+] 6.319 2024-04-03 07:49:18.092 0.007 10.769
50 km All 3509 COSMOS 249 DEB [-] 6.392 5.773E-02 0.002
GP Data 56791 STARLINK-5977 [+] 6.758 2024-04-03 15:49:24.210 0.042 13.750
50 km All 26214 CZ-4B DEB [-] 6.858 3.843E-02 0.019
GP Data 43889 LEMUR-2-DAISY-HARPER [+] 5.528 2024-04-02 05:37:29.390 0.067 8.585
50 km All 57950 STARLINK-30701 [+] 5.515 2.454E-02 0.019
GP Data 57246 STARLINK-5049 [+] 3.803 2024-03-31 19:22:53.846 0.079 10.499
50 km All 36800 PSLV R/B [-] 3.876 1.599E-02 0.025
GP Data 46585 STARLINK-1736 [+] 1.641 2024-03-29 20:42:58.383 0.205 5.122
50 km All 14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 1.638 1.360E-02 0.051
GP Data 56885 STARLINK-5095 [+] 4.454 2024-04-01 14:29:29.727 0.068 14.275
50 km All 57171 OBJECT F [+] 4.415 1.322E-02 0.035
GP Data 48567 STARLINK-2215 [P] 4.364 2024-04-01 14:44:14.747 0.145 3.243
50 km All 55700 STARLINK-30064 [P] 4.364 1.130E-02 0.035
GP Data 53446 OBJECT C [+] 5.095 2024-04-02 06:59:37.909 0.120 5.914
50 km All 58114 STARLINK-30572 [+] 5.492 8.482E-03 0.031

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.