SOCRATES

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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2022 Oct 06 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2022 Oct 06 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2022 Oct 13 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 9,454 Primaries, 23,765 Secondaries (113,738 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
52395 SPACEBEENZ-15 [+] 2.643 4.548E-02 0.002 0.009 0.000
52396 SPACEBEENZ-16 [+] 2.511 2022 Oct 06 12:00:00.000 2022 Oct 08 10:30:26.301 2022 Oct 12 07:30:05.771
46588 STARLINK-1746 [+] 7.352 2.183E-02 0.004 0.013 6.984
47768 STARLINK-2189 [+] 6.746 2022 Oct 12 21:52:57.713 2022 Oct 12 21:52:58.429 2022 Oct 12 21:52:59.145
45375 STARLINK-1302 [+] 6.417 1.638E-02 0.004 0.016 4.143
46044 STARLINK-1584 [+] 5.758 2022 Oct 11 21:22:53.721 2022 Oct 11 21:22:54.928 2022 Oct 11 21:22:56.135
25892 COSMOS 2366 [-] 4.571 1.012E-02 0.018 0.060 9.285
26819 SL-8 R/B [-] 4.888 2022 Oct 10 17:06:56.959 2022 Oct 10 17:06:57.498 2022 Oct 10 17:06:58.036
47653 STARLINK-2037 [+] 3.728 8.553E-03 0.006 0.021 6.962
48403 STARLINK-2561 [+] 3.736 2022 Oct 09 20:00:23.153 2022 Oct 09 20:00:23.871 2022 Oct 09 20:00:24.589
39624 SJ-11-06 [+] 3.508 7.751E-03 0.009 0.014 14.854
14801 SL-8 DEB [-] 3.788 2022 Oct 09 14:03:13.533 2022 Oct 09 14:03:13.870 2022 Oct 09 14:03:14.206
47772 STARLINK-2195 [+] 6.687 7.252E-03 0.006 0.024 4.675
48020 STARLINK-2294 [+] 6.682 2022 Oct 12 12:54:01.344 2022 Oct 12 12:54:02.414 2022 Oct 12 12:54:03.483
07490 METEOR 1-19 [?] 7.404 6.558E-03 0.021 0.087 3.794
33747 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.078 2022 Oct 13 04:34:13.385 2022 Oct 13 04:34:14.703 2022 Oct 13 04:34:16.020
45693 STARLINK-1417 [+] 7.421 6.244E-03 0.007 0.024 9.319
48434 STARLINK-2692 [+] 7.010 2022 Oct 12 17:38:58.799 2022 Oct 12 17:38:59.335 2022 Oct 12 17:38:59.872
45383 STARLINK-1266 [+] 5.421 4.533E-03 0.008 0.030 4.636
48331 STARLINK-2514 [+] 5.692 2022 Oct 11 03:11:48.402 2022 Oct 11 03:11:49.480 2022 Oct 11 03:11:50.558

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.