Supplemental GP Element Sets

Current as of 2025 Jan 20 23:32:56 UTC (Day 020)

SupGP vs. GP Comparisons
(RMS worse than 25 km)

See how well our SupGP compares to the source data
and how well the 18 SDS GP compares to SupGP

SupGP Statistics

Supplemental GP Data
Starlink Matching Results, All Launches: 75* Derived from latest Starlink ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from SpaceX.
Starlink G11-8 Pre-Launch Derived from a pre-launch Starlink-G11-8 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite. Launch: 2025-01-21 15:24:10 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 16:25:51.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 15:24:10 UTC to 2025-01-21 15:24:39 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #1 Launch: 2025-01-21 15:36:10 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 16:37:51.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 15:36:10 UTC to 2025-01-21 15:39:19 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #2 Launch: 2025-01-21 15:45:50 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 16:47:31.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 15:45:50 UTC to 2025-01-21 15:49:39 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #3 Launch: 2025-01-21 16:15:20 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 17:17:01.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 16:15:20 UTC to 2025-01-21 16:20:59 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #4 Launch: 2025-01-21 17:12:50 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 18:14:31.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 17:12:50 UTC to 2025-01-21 17:18:39 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #5 Launch: 2025-01-21 17:53:20 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 18:55:01.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 17:53:20 UTC to 2025-01-21 17:53:39 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #6 Launch: 2025-01-21 17:54:40 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 18:56:21.940 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 17:54:40 UTC to 2025-01-21 17:55:29 UTC.
Starlink G13-1 Pre-Launch Derived from a pre-launch Starlink-G13-1 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite. Launch: 2025-01-21 05:24:50 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 06:30:15.160 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 05:24:50 UTC to 2025-01-21 05:25:19 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #1 Launch: 2025-01-21 05:55:40 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 07:01:05.160 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 05:55:40 UTC to 2025-01-21 05:56:29 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #2 Launch: 2025-01-21 05:59:40 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 07:05:05.160 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 05:59:40 UTC to 2025-01-21 06:00:29 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #3 Launch: 2025-01-21 07:00:10 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 08:05:35.160 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 07:00:10 UTC to 2025-01-21 07:00:49 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #4 Launch: 2025-01-21 07:29:30 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 08:34:55.160 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 07:29:30 UTC to 2025-01-21 07:33:59 UTC. Backup Launch Opportunity #5 Launch: 2025-01-21 09:04:40 UTC. Deploy: 2025-01-21 10:10:05.160 UTC. Launch window: 2025-01-21 09:04:40 UTC to 2025-01-21 09:11:49 UTC.
Transporter-12 Post-Deployment Derived from individual Post-Deployment Transporter-12 state vectors for each object in the initial deployment, provided by SpaceX.  Launch: 2025-01-14 19:09:00.098 UTC. Deployments: 2025-01-14 20:02:10.158 UTC to 2025-01-14 21:30:40.518 UTC.
OneWeb Matching Results, All Launches: 10 Derived from latest OneWeb ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from OneWeb.
Planet Matching Results, All Launches: 2 Derived from latest Planet ephemeris data, with permission from Planet.
Iridium Matching Results, Full Constellation: 0 Derived from latest Iridium ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from Iridium.
GPS Operational Matching Results, Full Constellation: 0 Derived from latest SEM Almanac IAW IS-GPS-200M.
GLONASS Operational Matching Results, Full Constellation: 0 Derived from latest Rapid Satellite Ephemerides IAW The Extended Standard Product 3 Orbit Format.
Intelsat Matching Results, Full Constellation Derived from latest Intelsat Ephemeris Data IAW IESS 412 Rev 3.
SES Matching Results, Full Constellation: 2 Derived from latest SES ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from SES.
Telesat Matching Results, Full Constellation: 0 Derived from latest Telesat ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from Telesat.
ISS Derived from NASA OEM Ephemeris Data in 6-hour segments. Additional information can be found at Spot the Station.
CSS Derived from CMS OEM Ephemeris Data in 6-hour segments. Additional information can be found at China Manned Space News.
CPF Matching Results, All Prediction Centers: 3 Derived from latest Consolidated Laser Ranging Prediction Ephemeris Data (requires login account) IAW Consolidated Laser Ranging Prediction Format Version 2.00. Data is provided by these ILRS Prediction Centers.
Kuiper Matching Results, All Launches: 0 Derived from latest Kuiper ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from Amazon/Kuiper.
AST Space Mobile Matching Results, Full Constellation: 0 Derived from latest AST Space Mobile ephemeris data on Space Track, with permission from AST Space Mobile.

• Introduction

In order to reduce latency and improve accuracy, CelesTrak now offers supplemental GP (General Perturbations) element sets (GPEs) derived directly from owner/operator-supplied orbital data. Until now, all GP data provided to the public have been derived from radar and optical observations of the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN). This process can cause problems, particularly for deep-space objects (orbital periods greater than 225 minutes) which rely on optical observations. Limited geographic distribution of these optical sites, together with unpredictable weather conditions, can result in long intervals between observations, resulting in delays in cataloging objects, old and inaccurate data, and even difficulty in recovering objects.

While this uncooperative approach to tracking space objects is required for a large portion of the current satellite catalog, many of these objects are operational payloads which are routinely tracked by their owners or operators. Some of this orbital data, such as for the GPS constellation, is publicly available via the Internet. The goal of this new service is to take that data and generate SupGP data as part of the normal data update processes on CelesTrak.

• Methodology

Each day, CelesTrak checks known sources of publicly available orbital data and produces GP data from that data using Satellite Tool Kit (STK). As an example, for the GPS constellation, the latest GPS almanac provided by the 2nd Space Operations Squadron and posted in the GPS Data section on CelesTrak is propagated in accordance with IS-GPS-200M to produce ephemerides for the coming day. Those ephemerides are used as 'observations' to fit a GPE using the SGP4 orbital model in STK and described in detail in the paper "Revisiting Spacetrack Report #3."

As a result, for the GPS constellation, where GPEs are generally released one to two days after they are generated, the uncertainty drops from several kilometers to several hundred meters (approximately an order of magnitude). For a detailed analysis of the accuracy of GPS almanacs and GPS GPEs, see the paper "Validation of SGP4 and IS-GPS-200D Against GPS Precision Ephemerides." A more detailed analysis of the improved accuracy of these supplemental GPEs will be provided in an upcoming paper. For now, test cases for the GPS constellation on 2007 Dec 31 and the GLONASS constellation on 2008 Jan 23 are provided below.

Each supplemental GPE can be distinguished from regular NORAD GPEs by looking at the Classification field in the data. GPEs provided by Space Track will have a "U" in this field (for Unclassified). Supplemental GPEs will have a "C" in this field (to identify the source as CelesTrak). GPS supplemental GPEs will use the GPS Week and day of that week as the Element Set Number (e.g., GPS Week 435, TOA 589824 yields Element Set Number 4356). Supplemental GPEs for other satellites will use similar methods to set the Element Set Number to allow users to track the SupGPE back to the source data.

For the Intelsat data, where both nominal ephemeris data is provided along with post-maneuver data, both GPEs are generated. That allows the user to use the nominal GPE up to the time of the maneuver and then switch to the post-maneuver GPE after the time of the maneuver. The post-maneuver GPEs are marked with [PM] at the end of the satellite name (Line 0).

In addition, information on the accuracy of the SGP4 fit for each satellite is provided for each set of GPE data, with a link to a file showing the final calculated RMS and the number of iterations required to meet the convergence criteria.

We are working to add additional supplemental GPEs, as we become aware of other publicly available orbital data sources.

Other satellite owner/operators wishing to take advantage of this free service should feel free to contact me about how to obtain their orbital data.

• Advantages

As suggested above, there are several advantages to this new approach to providing SupGP data:

• Accuracy: Not only is the data available from satellite owner/operators more accurate than the uncooperative tracking data available from the SSN, but since the SupGPEs are produced with a known version of SGP4, the predictions using those SupGPEs with that same version will be more accurate, too.

• Timeliness: Satellite owner/operator orbital data is generated routinely as part of their normal operations and is not typically subject to the limitations of optical observing systems. This result should provide more reliable and timely updates.

• Redundancy: Even if you would prefer to use GPEs provided by Space Track as your primary source of orbital data, in those instances where data is unavailable or seems to be producing anomalous results, you can use these supplemental GPEs as a backup source of orbital data.

• Ease of Use: Rather than each user having to implement a variety of orbital propagation models to meet their needs, users can continue to use the standard SGP4 orbital propagation model, which is already implemented in most orbital tracking software packages. Users should ensure, however, that their software package implements the version of SGP4 described in "Revisiting Spacetrack Report #3" to ensure they get the best accuracy.

• GPS Test Case

To demonstrate the improved accuracy available from these supplemental GPEs, a comparison of the GPEs released by Space Track at 1300 UTC on 2007 Dec 31 was made to the supplemental GPEs generated from the SEM almanac released that same morning at 1515 UTC. The comparison was made to the NGA GPS Satellite Precise Ephemeris for 2007 Dec 31, made available on the NGA GPS Satellite Precise Ephemeris page on 2008 Jan 2, which is accurate to the centimeter level.

It should be noted that the Space Track GPEs used here have epochs ranging from Day 361.44451533 to Day 363.82128857, which means they must be propagated forward anywhere from 1.7 to 4.1 days to the time they were released on 2007 Dec 31 (Day 365.54166667). The GPS almanac, however, used a Time of Availability (TOA) of 319488 seconds on GPS Week 436, which corresponds to 2008 Jan 2 at 16:44:34 UTC (several days in the future). That means the supplemental GPEs, which are generated with an epoch matching that TOA are propagated backward 2.16 days to the same time.

Figure 1 shows a comparison of the results for PRNs 1 through 6 and 8 through 32 (PRN07 is not yet part of the GPS constellation). The red curves show the error in the Space Track GPEs when compared to the NGA Precise Ephemeris on 2007 Dec 31 and the blue curves show the error in the supplemental GPEs. It should be obvious from the plot that the supplemental GPEs are far more accurate over this interval than the corresponding Space Track GPEs. The 31 Space Track GPEs show an average error of 7.54 km over this period with a maximum error (for PRN15) of 32.45 km compared to an average error for the supplemental GPEs of 0.87 km and a maximum error of 2.37 km, yielding approximately an order of magnitude improvement in the error.



Figure 1. Comparison of NORAD and Supplemental GPEs to NGA Precise Ephemerides
Download PDF (3.98 MB) of Figure 1

• GLONASS Test Case

A comparison of the GPEs released by Space Track at 1300 UTC on 2008 Jan 25 was made to the supplemental GPEs generated from the GLONASS Rapid Precise Ephemerides released that same morning at 1311 UTC, covering the period from 2008 Jan 23 23:59:46.000 UTC (0000 GPS Time) to 2008 Jan 24 23:44:46.000 UTC. The comparison was made to the Final Precise Ephemerides for the day both data sets were released.

It should be noted that the Space Track GPEs used here have epochs ranging from Day 023.88315278 to Day 025.47923451 at the time they were released on 2008 Jan 25 (Day 025.54166667). The GLONASS Rapid Precise Ephemerides used to generate the supplemental GPEs, however, cover the period of Day 023.99983796 to Day 024.98942130.

Figure 2 shows a comparison of the results for GLONASS Slots 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 14, 15, 17, 19, 20, 23, and 24. The red curves show the error in the Space Track GPEs when compared to the GLONASS Final Precise Ephemeris on 2008 Jan 25 and the blue curves show the error in the supplemental GPEs. It should be obvious from the plot that the supplemental GPEs are far more accurate over this interval than the corresponding Space Track GPEs. The 14 Space Track GPEs show an average error of 3.30 km over this period with a maximum error (for Slot 7) of 9.39 km compared to an average error for the supplemental GPEs of 0.20 km and a maximum error of 0.54 km, yielding over an order of magnitude improvement in the error.



Figure 2. Comparison of NORAD and Supplemental GPEs to GLONASS Final Precise Ephemerides
Download PDF (1.82 MB) of Figure 2

Similar results should be expected for geostationary satellites, although a demonstration of that performance will have to await further analysis.