Oltrogge, D.L., T.S. Kelso, and T. Carrico, "Characterizing the India ASAT Debris Evolution Using Diverse, Complementary Tools," presented at 2019 Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Portland, ME, 2019 August 14.
The recent India ASAT intercept is a poignant reminder of the need for tools to model a kinetic engagement, build representative scenarios of the resulting debris cloud, and further characterize the likelihood of a fragment being present anywhere in three- dimensional space as a function of time. In this paper we examine a sequence of modeling tools for end-to-end collision, explosion and kinetic ASAT intercept fragmentation cloud modeling, including additional derived data such as an assessment of the "top 25" active satellites placed at highest temporal risk of secondary collision with fragments, as well as statistics on orbits and their lifetimes.
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