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 CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
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Data current as of 2025 May 17 16:05:30 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2025 May 17 16:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2025 May 24 16:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 11,570 Primaries, 27,474 Secondaries (83,519 Conjunctions)
20 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 06h 08m 16.161s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 43812 GLOBAL-2 [+] 7.121 2025-05-23 23:02:24.133 0.042 11.752
50 km All 47805 STARLINK-2386 [+] 6.717 4.949E-02 0.015
GP Data 53746 STARLINK-4589 [+] 3.102 2025-05-19 10:42:46.688 0.049 8.088
50 km All 15071 USA 3 [?] 2.645 4.428E-02 0.014
GP Data 43759 SIRION PATHFINDER-2 [+] 1.384 2025-05-18 02:31:39.525 0.039 13.906
50 km All 53020 STARLINK-4287 [+] 1.303 4.279E-02 0.018
GP Data 43767 CORVUS BC4 [+] 3.509 2025-05-21 00:50:10.279 0.038 14.188
50 km All 53409 STARLINK-4490 [+] 4.017 4.261E-02 0.019
GP Data 59701 STARLINK-32093 [+] 2.373 2025-05-19 21:03:21.158 0.044 12.827
50 km All 47937 OBJECT F [-] 2.369 3.983E-02 0.017
GP Data 52475 STARLINK-3882 [+] 5.164 2025-05-21 22:30:17.502 0.062 5.982
50 km All 41519 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 5.097 3.040E-02 0.016
GP Data 57250 STARLINK-5488 [+] 0.918 2025-05-18 02:00:16.625 0.060 9.860
50 km All 40022 PACE [-] 0.591 2.845E-02 0.018
GP Data 46320 NAPA-1 [+] 3.699 2025-05-21 04:39:41.437 0.065 6.334
50 km All 62826 STARLINK-32704 [+] 3.944 2.792E-02 0.017
GP Data 58857 STARLINK-31216 [P] 6.166 2025-05-22 12:33:32.518 0.124 3.846
50 km All 62201 STARLINK-32667 [+] 5.113 2.679E-02 0.030
GP Data 56346 STARLINK-5837 [+] 1.997 2025-05-19 11:57:29.545 0.069 1.391
50 km All 31999 ISIS 1 DEB [-] 3.025 2.572E-02 0.017

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.