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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2025 Feb 14 16:05:30 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2025 Feb 14 16:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2025 Feb 21 16:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 11,024 Primaries, 27,142 Secondaries (81,202 Conjunctions)
19 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 06h 17m 55.042s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs
NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch
TCA
(UTC)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 55742 STARLINK-5594 [+] 0.570 2025-02-15 02:17:44.143 0.021 14.858
50 km All 61332 CZ-6A DEB [-] 0.594 1.148E-01 0.012
GP Data 58634 STARLINK-31025 [+] 3.114 2025-02-17 12:46:27.812 0.026 14.174
50 km All 61744 OBJECT K [+] 3.073 8.781E-02 0.013
GP Data 48484 STARLINK-2696 [P] 2.070 2025-02-16 06:46:57.613 0.072 6.290
50 km All 58545 STARLINK-31057 [+] 2.796 6.990E-02 0.019
GP Data 58275 FLOCK 4Q-12 [+] 4.443 2025-02-18 22:17:22.600 0.031 14.744
50 km All 58876 STARLINK-31306 [+] 4.868 5.802E-02 0.017
GP Data 44952 STARLINK-1117 [P] 3.615 2025-02-17 20:45:58.226 0.091 5.331
50 km All 59746 STARLINK-31681 [+] 4.004 4.666E-02 0.023
GP Data 56798 STARLINK-6068 [+] 4.891 2025-02-18 19:47:23.365 0.059 8.873
50 km All 31355 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.069 3.071E-02 0.017
GP Data 33412 COSMO-SKYMED 3 [+] 6.987 2025-02-21 11:28:36.138 0.040 14.960
50 km All 55639 STARLINK-5508 [+] 6.985 3.009E-02 0.026
GP Data 60336 STARLINK-32079 [+] 5.990 2025-02-20 10:51:08.137 0.062 10.458
50 km All 60521 OBJECT BF [+] 6.258 2.546E-02 0.019
GP Data 45726 ANDESITE [+] 1.407 2025-02-15 04:22:01.719 0.062 11.127
50 km All 56384 STARLINK-6153 [+] 1.544 2.407E-02 0.020
GP Data 42840 LEMUR-2-FURIAUS [+] 4.589 2025-02-18 14:21:42.396 0.068 9.206
50 km All 54789 STARLINK-5446 [+] 4.525 2.263E-02 0.020

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.