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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2024 Mar 29 00:05:34 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2024 Mar 29 00:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2024 Apr 05 00:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 9,548 Primaries, 26,009 Secondaries (71,050 Conjunctions)
26 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 04h 57m 21.696s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs
NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch
TCA
(UTC)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 53866 STARLINK-4762 [+] 5.681 2024-04-03 07:28:56.483 0.026 10.867
50 km All 24795 IRIDIUM 5 [-] 5.765 1.047E-01 0.008
GP Data 49961 SHIJIAN-6 05A (SJ-6 05A) [+] 6.639 2024-04-04 08:30:25.159 0.009 15.104
50 km All 20608 MACSAT 2 (M 2) [?] 6.798 7.303E-02 0.006
GP Data 56179 ORBASTRO-AF 1 [+] 5.399 2024-04-03 06:09:53.951 0.041 5.832
50 km All 58892 STARLINK-31254 [+] 5.721 6.774E-02 0.011
GP Data 55941 STARLINK-5914 [+] 6.259 2024-04-04 03:15:23.991 0.034 5.451
50 km All 3230 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.537 5.857E-02 0.009
GP Data 54174 STARLINK-5248 [+] 3.530 2024-04-01 06:32:07.432 0.020 13.075
50 km All 35341 PSLV DEB [-] 3.725 5.741E-02 0.008
GP Data 53403 STARLINK-4507 [+] 2.418 2024-03-30 18:36:33.417 0.040 5.736
50 km All 32787 COMPASS-1 [-] 2.288 2.243E-02 0.010
GP Data 58678 STARLINK-31125 [+] 6.908 2024-04-04 09:43:39.649 0.073 7.067
50 km All 39443 QUBESCOUT-S1 [-] 6.918 2.169E-02 0.019
GP Data 57897 STARLINK-30474 [+] 4.699 2024-04-02 07:51:10.241 0.067 13.238
50 km All 59224 OBJECT A [+] 4.462 1.677E-02 0.028
GP Data 56785 STARLINK-5931 [+] 4.615 2024-04-02 00:30:38.890 0.066 13.645
50 km All 36441 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.451 1.621E-02 0.029
GP Data 45713 STARLINK-1436 (VISORSAT) [P] 4.493 2024-04-01 13:11:24.566 0.080 8.456
50 km All 52684 STARLINK-4014 [+] 4.151 1.448E-02 0.022

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.