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 CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items

Data current as of 2023 Dec 11 16:05:31 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2023 Dec 11 16:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2023 Dec 18 16:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 9,022 Primaries, 25,867 Secondaries (70,085 Conjunctions)
7 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 04h 48m 35.924s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 52873 STARLINK-4211 [+] 7.614 2023-12-18 06:02:28.456 0.025 10.791
50 km All 55326 HAWK-6C [+] 7.383 4.487E-02 0.008
GP Data 45425 ONEWEB-0067 [+] 6.628 2023-12-17 06:27:45.815 0.027 14.355
50 km All 24279 H-2 R/B [-] 6.561 3.840E-02 0.018
GP Data 43772 RANGE-A [+] 1.861 2023-12-12 12:15:37.031 0.031 6.980
50 km All 55336 STARLINK-5655 [+] 1.129 3.624E-02 0.008
GP Data 46913 R2 [+] 3.242 2023-12-14 03:02:21.599 0.033 2.497
50 km All 48597 STARLINK-2255 [+] 3.246 3.383E-02 0.008
GP Data 42826 NORSAT 1 [+] 4.338 2023-12-14 20:29:25.799 0.021 14.916
50 km All 55414 STARLINK-5620 [+] 3.648 3.193E-02 0.013
GP Data 47376 STARLINK-2096 [+] 1.709 2023-12-12 09:11:08.259 0.029 11.783
50 km All 57186 CSTP 1.2 (STC 1.2) [+] 0.920 3.153E-02 0.010
GP Data 51131 STARLINK-3388 [+] 5.574 2023-12-16 01:28:24.403 0.033 7.588
50 km All 57182 MONITOR-4 (RS57S) [+] 4.594 3.015E-02 0.009
GP Data 44949 STARLINK-1122 [+] 3.628 2023-12-15 01:39:09.512 0.036 13.625
50 km All 35341 PSLV DEB [-] 5.522 1.617E-02 0.016
GP Data 46679 STARLINK-1773 [+] 1.920 2023-12-13 02:49:34.242 0.047 9.313
50 km All 10208 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 2.563 1.423E-02 0.014
GP Data 47629 STARLINK-1974 [+] 5.952 2023-12-17 08:36:19.925 0.072 10.068
50 km All 14817 SL-8 DEB [-] 6.420 5.942E-03 0.022

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.