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 CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
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Data current as of 2026 Feb 14 20:05:32 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2026 Feb 14 20:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2026 Feb 21 20:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 14,389 Primaries, 29,966 Secondaries (114,088 Conjunctions)
13 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 09h 10m 27.366s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 20580 HST [+] 6.264 2026-02-20 01:28:35.787 0.065 3.270
50 km All 60019 STARLINK-31986 [+] 5.682 1.251E-01 0.017
GP Data 58119 STARLINK-30765 [+] 3.992 2026-02-17 23:53:52.403 0.030 8.182
50 km All 44629 PEGASUS R/B [-] 3.477 1.062E-01 0.009
GP Data 57186 CSTP 1.2 (STC 1.2) [+] 5.860 2026-02-20 08:47:09.721 0.026 14.546
50 km All 62074 STARLINK-32619 [+] 6.277 8.681E-02 0.013
GP Data 61701 STARLINK-32461 [+] 4.551 2026-02-18 13:02:07.746 0.034 9.072
50 km All 63211 NUSHSAT1 [+] 4.290 8.387E-02 0.010
GP Data 56200 HAWK-7C [+] 6.052 2026-02-20 06:34:47.839 0.037 13.043
50 km All 67308 STARLINK-36449 [+] 5.766 5.606E-02 0.015
GP Data 50850 STARLINK-3312 [+] 2.333 2026-02-16 00:37:32.893 0.039 13.056
50 km All 58755 NANOFF B [+] 1.877 4.873E-02 0.016
GP Data 58921 NEXSAT-1 [+] 6.085 2026-02-20 14:02:32.095 0.049 11.738
50 km All 58937 STARLINK-31390 [+] 6.286 3.666E-02 0.017
GP Data 63986 SCS-01 E [+] 0.412 2026-02-14 20:07:50.274 0.011 0.000
50 km All 66699 IRIDE FM5 [+] 0.676 3.358E-02 0.003
GP Data 63986 SCS-01 E [+] 0.447 2026-02-14 20:57:00.996 0.015 0.000
50 km All 66699 IRIDE FM5 [+] 0.710 3.358E-02 0.003
GP Data 63986 SCS-01 E [+] 0.490 2026-02-14 21:59:04.971 0.009 0.000
50 km All 66699 IRIDE FM5 [+] 0.753 3.358E-02 0.003

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.