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 CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
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Data current as of 2024 Oct 03 08:06:18 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2024 Oct 03 08:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2024 Oct 10 08:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 10,296 Primaries, 26,885 Secondaries (74,908 Conjunctions)
27 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 05h 39m 44.128s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 55346 STARLINK-5631 [+] 2.272 2024-10-04 22:42:19.693 0.024 9.621
50 km All 29507 CZ-4B R/B [-] 2.593 1.533E-01 0.007
GP Data 57234 STARLINK-6368 [+] 7.913 2024-10-10 03:35:02.495 0.039 7.055
50 km All 44632 COSMOS 2535 DEB [-] 7.802 7.150E-02 0.011
GP Data 53586 CHUANGXIN 16A (CX-16A) [+] 5.701 2024-10-08 12:40:08.668 0.043 5.328
50 km All 56424 STARLINK-6242 [+] 5.891 6.098E-02 0.011
GP Data 54167 STARLINK-5243 [+] 4.617 2024-10-07 10:18:55.159 0.035 13.233
50 km All 43534 CZ-2C DEB [-] 4.511 5.778E-02 0.015
GP Data 54102 STARLINK-5179 [+] 5.570 2024-10-08 16:36:03.057 0.042 14.562
50 km All 29509 CZ-4B DEB [-] 5.564 3.234E-02 0.023
GP Data 37179 SHIJIAN-6 04A (SJ-6 04A) [+] 3.413 2024-10-06 15:00:58.685 0.052 13.714
50 km All 50207 STARLINK-3262 [+] 3.788 2.525E-02 0.023
GP Data 55274 STARLINK-5236 [+] 6.586 2024-10-09 19:15:27.540 0.071 6.124
50 km All 30423 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.825 2.387E-02 0.018
GP Data 47382 STARLINK-2102 [+] 0.490 2024-10-03 14:29:05.176 0.060 14.482
50 km All 31281 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.880 1.645E-02 0.032
GP Data 54776 STARLINK-5470 [+] 6.530 2024-10-09 17:03:51.359 0.060 14.582
50 km All 59774 OBJECT B [+] 6.547 1.579E-02 0.033
GP Data 53217 STARLINK-4379 [+] 6.083 2024-10-09 06:10:51.244 0.086 8.078
50 km All 28221 NAXING 1 [?] 6.016 1.518E-02 0.024

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.